Painting, "Storm below Mount Fuji" by Hokusai, from the Met. As a small, seismically active archipelago, more accurate earthquake predictions are crucial in Japan.
It was fascinating to hear Brendan Meade speak about how predictions regarding earthquakes were substantially improved once he was able to *stop* thinking like a seismologist. Whereas seismologists study the aftermath of earthquakes, Meade explains, it is the time following the aftermath that the Earth is, in fact, preparing for its next earthquake—this is the time that is most valuable to study in terms of prediction.
To me, this shift in approaches is illuminating especially when I think back to previous videos in this series regarding behavioural economics (Dan Gilbert's talk, for example), where it became clear that previous frameworks utilised in various fields, in fact, failed to integrated key elements or parameters which would allow a deeper understanding of actual conditions - the integration of which would produce higher-quality predictions. In various fields, both intellectual evolution and technological revolution have had deep impacts on our ability to make predictions more accurately. I wonder whether it will be the former or the latter that most impacts our predictions in the future: if only there was a way to know...!