I found Professor Goodman's discussion with Brendan Meade and Susan Murphy incredibly compelling. In particular, I was fascinated by Meade's account of his team's "semi" prediction of the 2011 Sendai earthquake in Japan. As he explained, very few of earth scientists expected the earthquake to occur simply because of historical data. However, his modeling and data showed a massive strain building up the ideal conditions for a large earthquake. Despite publishing a paper before the earthquake detailing the risk, it appears that this prediction did not translate to increased concern or preparation in the Sendai area. I would love to ask Brendan Meade how he thinks we can increase the power of prediction through effective public communication and translation to public policy.
