The most surprising piece of information I learned from the interview between Professor Goodman and Dan Gilbert was the categories of human belief and how these affect prediction. It was very fascinating to hear about the two different categories of human belief in regards to prediction, the first; being certain of an outcome and the second; being unsure and seeing it as a possibility that the given event may occur. The most intriguing part of the discussion occurred when Professor Goodman and Dan Gilbert discussed the 'margins' of human interpretation of probability and when a change in probability has a seismic effect upon behaviour is when an event could occur in contrast to when it is certain to occur. As an example, if there is an 80% chance that an event will occur versus to an event definitely occurring, makes a huge difference to people, however objectively the difference in chance is not as great.
If I were to have conducted the interview I would have asked Dan Gilbert why people still choose to fill out march madness brackets, when in aspiration of the billion dollar prize, although their chances are so slim they have a better chance winning the lottery?