The Prediction Project

The Past and Present of the Future

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    Earth

    A place to talk about the Earth & Climate Change.

    Earth
    elijahschimelpfenig

    Something Surprising and a Question for Prof. Firestein

    The most surprising thing that I heard in the Professor Firestein video was the discussion of our perception of time before the era of clocks. How did humans navigate their material world differently without a concerted sense of time? Firestein's mention of the annular and cyclic vs the longitudinal
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    Recent Activity:
    Apr 29, 2021
    5a8be689

    Brendan Meade and Susan Murphy - Calculating uncertainty

    I would have loved to hear the experts discuss more exactly how they compute uncertainties for their predictions of earthquakes, and how they take into account the possibility that their models may be wrong. They mentioned at 33:19 that meteorologists will often compute uncertainty by running many s
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    Recent Activity:
    Apr 27, 2021
    jordanlee

    Meade and Murphy - Reactions to Predictions

    In the interview with Meade and Murphy , Professor Goodman mentions that it is difficult for the public to understand how prediction systems work. Meade mentions how difficult it is to convince the public of the severity of natural disasters, citing the misunderstanding of the uncertainty with clim
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    Recent Activity:
    Apr 25, 2021
    Aurora Avallone

    Questions: Deep dive into external factors that may impact health and earthquake predictions- Susan Murphy & Brendan Meade Interview

    In watching the interview with Susan Murphy & Brendan Meade , I noticed how both interviewees discuss how difficult it is to make predictions that can pinpoint the anticipation of a health event like stress levels or an earthquake event. Both of them discuss the general processes that allow them to
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    Recent Activity:
    Apr 22, 2021
    Pedro Duarte Moreira

    Hypothesis-Free Prediction - Question

    When watching Meade and Murphy's interview , one of the things that stood out to me was that Meade said that we do not have adequate algorithms or essentially rules to predict earthquakes accurately. I would've wanted to ask him if he believes that is because our current mathematical tools (namely
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    Recent Activity:
    Apr 22, 2021
    jordanlee

    Brendan Meade - Earthquake Preparation

    I never realized that earthquake preparation could be so difficult, maybe because I never knew you had to replace a bicycle helmet after crashing! If earthquake-proof buildings are not meant to be reused after withstanding an earthquake, is the same true for other natural disasters? For example, are
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    Recent Activity:
    Apr 22, 2021
    Cici Williams

    Question for Professor Meade

    I was surprised that models of the Earth below the surface are still so difficult to make. While we obviously can't see structures below the ground with the naked eye or traditional cameras, I find it surprising that we can track surface movements down to the 10th of a millimeter but cannot observe
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