This section highlights writings by Professor Goodman on contemporary topics related to uncertainty and prediction. While these pieces are not official Prediction Project material, they contain major conceptual ideas from the Prediction Project's courses applied to major real life questions. These articles reflect Professor Goodman's personal views, not official Harvard policy.
Data Driven Dilemmas Posed by COVID-19
In this essay, Alyssa discusses the complex tradeoffs involved with decision making in an age of pandemic. Scientists face ethical dilemmas when choosing to view this crisis in a rational or emotional way.
We know how to express risk and uncertainty with numbers, but people don’t always take practical actions based on those numbers. The COVID crisis brings this contrast into sharp focus.
Uncertainty about Uncertainty
This commentary piece examines predictions of uncertainty in IHME COVID-19 models. She sheds light on the tendency of these important models to underestimate uncertainty in deaths per day estimates.