Many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19 through modeling. Last spring in particular, despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals many of the constructed models were unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of the epidemic in the long term leading to widespread medical mistrust and conspiracy theories of government paranoia. How should models be presented to the general public so they understand that such uncertainty exists? Or that they are everchanging based on our holistic response?
top of page
bottom of page