What do you, personally, think you will remember most about this interview a year from now?
The most memorable part of this interview is Sir David Spiegelhalter advice about being careful about the limitations of what one can pretend to do. He brought up the example of COVID in the UK and how the politicians wanted forecasters to say what will happen in 6 months, 12 months etc. This was memorable because it was a very human reminder of our need for control and understanding played out into society.
How do you think any aspect of the interview will affect your own future, or society's future?
Sir David Spiegelhalter's discussion of humility really left a lasting impact on me. he first introduced the concept of humility when discussing Black Swan ideas, such as the financial crisis of 2008. He spoke about how people have been proud about having models and being grounded in empiricism, but no matter how much data we obtain, we just "don't know" sometimes. As he puts it, "this is a demonstration of the inadequacy of your first judgement... could be better or could be wrong".
For society's future, I think that across the social sciences and sciences we should always have an open mind that things could completely subvert the way we think about things. This reminds me a lot about Thomas Kuhn's Theory of Scientific Revolutions - that there is a cycle to shifting our system of thinking. In my person life, I think that I need to be aware that there is always more data I can obtain to "update" my judgement and mode of thinking. No matter how confident I am in what I believe, I don't know what I don't know.
Thoughts on the Future of the Future. The post provides a thoughtful reflection on Sir David Spiegelhalter's interview, particularly focusing on the themes of humility and the limitations of forecasting and modeling. When considering the spectrum from pure theory to just data-driven approaches, this post presents a nuanced perspective that touches upon both ends of the spectrum. On one hand, Sir David's discussion about the limitations of forecasting, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlights the importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms and semantic understanding (pure theory). Politicians' desire for precise forecasts exemplifies a demand for concrete predictions, often overlooking the complexity and uncertainty inherent in such situations. This aligns with the need for a deeper understanding of the underlying processes driving events, rather than relying solely on data-driven approaches. On the other hand, the post also emphasizes the significance of humility in acknowledging the limitations of our knowledge and the potential for paradigm shifts in our understanding. This echoes the idea of being open to new data and perspectives, which can be seen as a more data-driven approach to knowledge acquisition. Overall, the post effectively navigates between discussions of theory and data-driven approaches, demonstrating an appreciation for both perspectives. It highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between these approaches, recognizing the value of theory in providing deeper insights while also acknowledging the power of data-driven approaches in uncovering new patterns and insights.