Prediction in the Media

For this post, I will be assessing how the interview, Prediction, and Philosophy tie into my final project topic which explores the type of predictive metrics casinos use to stay profitable. Within the interview, there is a discussion about the predictable nature of human behaviors which is a key co

The most memorable piece of information I learned from Dr. Goodman’s interview with Avi Loeb was his conclusion that mere collection of data is not sufficient to obtain a full understanding of the nature of the world. I was really intrigued by the anecdote he shared about his visit to Chichén Itzá —

Link: https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954/items/lx-pb:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954:lx_simulation:5e3f229f?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction I found it quite interesting how Gilbert describes animals' ability t

In the Dan Gilbert video the idea of other species making predictions is discussed. Why do we think humans evolved to make predictions, what was the evolutionary necessity to develop this trait? https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954/items/lx-

Prof. Gilbert and Prof. Liabson - How do you think that the ability to leverage herd-mentality will change with the advent of ML? For example, say we have a learning algorithm that predicts that a stock will increase in value, thus a lot of people buy it…which actually winds up driving the price low

The most surprising bit of information that I learned in this video was how people generally think of uncertainty. I took Prof. Gilbert’s Psych1 last fall, and it still amazes me how much people value the concept of being certain about an outcome. I wonder if this will change over time as the gener

https://www.wpbf.com/article/florida-hurricane-season-forecast-2024-wpbf/60076029#:~:text=potential%20for%20landfall.-,Finally%2C%20based%20on%20our%20coming%20off%20of%20a%20strong%20El,and%203%2D5%20Major%20Hurricanes. This article includes predictions for this upcoming hurricane season in Florid

Article: https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/journalism-media-and-technology-trends-and-predictions-2024 Discussion: This is an article about technology trends - AI, virtual reality, the metaverse - something I am particularly interested in. Firstly, in terms of VR and the metaverse, the art

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-see-exploding-star-nova-nasa-says-expect-soon-2024-3 T Coronae Borealis is a nova that astronomers are predicting to become visible and outshine the north star for a week before disappearing.

Article link: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/climate/climate-change-health-effects-lancet.html This article discusses the health effects of climate change, in particular that the deaths related to heat have increased 85% since the 1990s. Additionally, food insecurity linked to droughts and exce

• What do you, personally, think you will remember most about this interview a year from now?  (10 points) I think I will remember most how to best show businessmen how their prediction that everything will be the same in the future, is wrong. The reality is that people think linearly. But more re

I would ask Professor Laibson if it would be beneficial for the general public to learn more about uncertainty and to consider that these extreme cases could happen with a higher likelihood than we imagine? https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:b5121779-9f49-49db-93d9-80d5d67dadb3/i

I found it interesting how David talked about AI in relation to the future of politics. I would ask him whether or not he thinks having AI running policy making will truly eliminate bias from these political spaces and create a 'more fair' country or if he thinks biases will just be reinforced throu

A question I would have asked Professor Laibson during his interview is: How should we communicate about out-of-sample events to the public? It seems like so often, when an unexpected event arises — like the miscalculations that contributed to the Great Recession, like the election of Donald Trump,

Link: https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954/items/lx-pb:53ffe9d1-bc3b-4730-abb3-d95f5ab5f954:lx_simulation:5e3f229f?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction I thought it was interesting how Dr. Gilbert differentiated how human

What limitations does the use of AI have when considering the already confusing and granular amount of data required to elucidate trends within the stock market? Video: https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:b5121779-9f49-49db-93d9-80d5d67dadb3/items/lx-pb:b5121779-9f49-49db-93d9-80d

The article titled "Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up", by G. Elliott Morris on 538 (ABC news) discusses how well the current polling between Biden and Trump can be used to predict the election. Currently, Biden is losing to Trump in the presidential elect

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture-council/articles/what-the-future-of-live-music-1397096/ This article explores the ways in which individual artists, bands, and other musicians could potentially take action to make the music industry more sustainable. Tours for musicians are vastly different in

Article Link: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/diabetes-risk-tobacco-exposure#:~:text=A%20study%20has%20found%20a,it%20easier%20to%20quit%20smoking. This article details a probabilistic-based prediction that highlights how early tobacco use is correlated with increased risk for Type 2 Diabete

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilsahota/2024/02/05/touchdown-technology-the-rise-of-ai-in-american-football/?sh=232403493180 This article speaks about the significant impact of AI on football, highlighting how it affects game planning, and improves player performance, and talent scouting. AI has b

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-inch-toward-better-volcanic-eruption-forecasting1/

The most surprising bit of information that I learned was how complex some models of prediction are, such as the climate change one, where there is, as Professor Laibson said, "a vast uncertainty" related with all these models and how important it is to take into account through this uncertainty the

In the interview with David Laibson I found the rationality through repetition part to be very interesting. The idea that it is a phycological mechanism just as much as a realistic problem solving mechanism is illuminating. This plays into the idea that a prediction must be repeated again and again

I was quite surprised to learn that, as Professor Gilbert explained, fear is not an effective motivator for human behavior, at least when it comes to efforts to mitigate climate change. This surprises me in part because of the evolutionary origins of fear — namely, as both an impulse to avoid danger

On the same topic as my previous post, I thought it was really interesting that animals are able to make predictions but do so without imagination. I would ask what evolutionary advantage imaginative prediction may have given humans.

I was interested to hear Dr. Laibson discuss his thoughts on how machine learning and AI fits into the space of stock predictions. In my experience, I feel like I hear people make predictions about the future and choose one extreme end of the spectrum. In this case, that would either be believing ma

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/11/02/james-hansen-climate-change-warning/ The article talks about how famous climate scientists are now predicting that the Earth is warming quicker than previously expected. Unlike previous scientific work on climate change, this particular p

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/can-ai-make-economic-predictions-by-reading-the-newspaper

Robots Learn, Chatbots Visualize: How 2024 Will Be A.I.’s ‘Leap Forward’,https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/08/technology/ai-robots-chatbots-2024.html In a January article for the New York Times, journalist Cade Metz prognosticates about the near future of AI, offering readers five concrete predictio

https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/Pages/Earthquakes/UCERF3.aspx