One of the most surprising pieces of information I learned from this interview with David Laibson is that economists are not able to confidently predict economic events twenty years from now. Without much prior thought, I assumed that society has achieved a stage where they have the technology to accurately predict events years far into the future. However, this interview has shown me that we still have much work to do and that prediction does not encompass just one pinned event but rather a plethora of different possibilities with wide uncertainties, especially in economics. I also found it interesting that even machine learning and AI which we view as error-less also have shortcomings and biases, which can be attributed to the fact that humans are the ones who create the algorithms. This interview has piqued my interest in further understanding what this current society can and cannot do in terms of prediction.
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https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:b5121779-9f49-49db-93d9-80d5d67dadb3/items/lx-pb:b5121779-9f49-49db-93d9-80d5d67dadb3:lx_simulation:f10b9110?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction&fullscreen=true