Dan Gilbert mentions that humans use data from the past to make prediction and/or a simulation about the future (in particular, he mentions what would it be like to have a vacation at a beach as an example), but there are times in which the information from the past is misrepresented and that leads to flawed forecasts about the future. Gilbert argues the root of this is in irrationality, my question is what criteria is needed to avoid falling into this trap and thus reduce the uncertainty in these type of predictions?
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I think this is a great question Oswaldo! However, I would think that the way we measure the uncertainty of these information is generally easy to see. It is much easier to measure the uncertainty of a physical measurement than it is to measure the uncertainty of a prediction, due to the compounding errors that can occur in a complex prediction. But, I guess in the case of a human-related measurement, uncertainty is abundant.