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What do you, personally, think you will remember most about this interview a year from now? The most memorable part of this interview is Sir David Spiegelhalter advice about being careful about the limitations of what one can pretend to do. He brought up the example of COVID in the UK and how the

Professor Goodman's interview of Dan Gilbert relates to my final project in a few ways. My project involves the creation of my own model to predict the outcome of NBA playoff games. Part of my process includes deciding which factors to give weight to in my model. Things like home court advantage a

While this was indirectly mentioned in the Dan Gilbert interview on prediction and psychology, one thing that stuck out for me was the surface-level, inverse relationship between belief in the uncertainty of a predictive model versus belief in the predictive model itself. A great example of this is

I was shocked by the idea that memories and predictions for the future are pyscologically the same: given what you know already, imagine an event. In the case of prediction, you know much less, and therefore the word "imagine" seems a lot more fitting, but memory working as imagination is a newer in

For the PredictionX video relevant to my project, I watched the interview with David Laibson about Behavioral Economics. This interview was directly relevant to my project topic, even though I am not working on a wealth or economics adjacent project. My project aims to investigate how Large Language

https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:825945a0-367c-45dc-82b7-3d160c6e6f7a/items/lb:HarvardX:b0b1d3dd:lx_simulation:1/54682?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction I watched the interview with Gina McCarthy on Climate Change. My final project is on the U.S. Natio

Alyssa Goodman's interview with Megan Murray, a leading epidemiologist, revealed interesting details about forms of data collection and changing predictions based on individual or governmental actions. Murray discusses the importance of considering individual risk factors when modeling disease preva

Video: https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:825945a0-367c-45dc-82b7-3d160c6e6f7a/items/lb:HarvardX:fe7fbba2:lx_simulation:1/54683?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction&fullscreen=true Reflection: While none of the interviews seemed to relate to my project to

This video was very interesting and explained the different parameters to keep in mind when evaluating the weather and which are important when trying to forecast it. They are pressure, temperature and humidity, and they heavily influence how we perceive temperature. Here is an additional resource

The most surprising information I learned was about the Brain Initiative and the comprehensive approach that it takes to understand the brain. I found it fascinating how the project collects and integrates data on multiple aspects of brain function and structure, including activity (how the brain

Like climate modeling, flood prediction also involves complex systems that are not linear and can behave in unexpected ways. Just as the video discusses the challenges of predicting exactly when major climate tipping points might occur, flooding prediction also has to grapple with the potential for

As I am researching predictions in the Housing Market, I watched the interview with David Laibson on behavioral economics. Behavioral economics is deeply connected to predictions in the housing market because it explores how psychological, social, and emotional factors influence the economic decisi

https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:0b417a9e-6227-44a8-a887-dbfdf44e37e3/items/lb:HarvardX:fe7fbba2:lx_simulation:1/62346?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction&fullscreen=true I watched Brendan Meade's interview. Earthquake prediction has always been fascinat

how the interview relates to your chosen final project topic. My project is about predicting sea level rise in New York City, so this interview was quite enlightening because it discussed climate change and climate policy. Gina McCarthy's discussion about a climate change "silver bullet" was really

I really enjoyed watching the interview with Gina McCarthy and learning a lot about climate change and climate policy. I thought that the most surprising piece of information was in their discussion about what a proposed "silver bullet" for climate change would be. While I was expecting at least som

One thing Brendan mentioned at the beginning which really stuck out to me was this: "Earthquake prediction has long been considered one of the hardest problems in all of science. It's a story that's extremely sad and almost entirely covered in failure." - (2:53) Much of what we are presenting about

I chose to listen to Professor Goodman’s interview with Ned Hall because in a way, the concept of truth is critical to my topic, which is predicting jury verdicts (which the image I chose from A Few Good Men is a joking nod too — ultimately, our judicial process is about finding the truth — regardl

I watched the interview with Gina McCarthy on Climate Change. My final project is on the U.S. National (Wildland) Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). A point made in the Gina McCarthy interview is that the key to combating climate change is not an over-focus on the science in a vacuum but instead act

I thought these interviews were very informative in providing diverse perspectives on understanding scientific inquiry and communication of delivering such findings. For example, Firestein emphasizes the value of embracing uncertainty and re-examining/repeating experiments to progress scientific kno

Extra/useful Source: https://gking.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/pan1900011_rev.pdf Explain (In a paragraph) how the interview relates to your chosen final project topic. (20 points) This interview touched on a number of topics that are pertinent to my final project. Foremost, Rayo spoke quite

In the Fall of 2020, my colleague, Prof. Immaculata De Vivo of the Harvard School of Public Health, and I wrote an essay about the public perception of risk and uncertainty, especially with regard to COVID-19. In this post, we are gathering comments from students in the Spring 2021 edition of "Ge

Dr. de Vivo talks about cancer prediction with respect to aggregate risk factors, which is really fascinating. Taking into account BMI, number of children, hormone use, etc. can provide a profile of sorts to give a woman's risk of endometrial cancer-- in her example specifically. This is similar to

Church discusses the reasons why individuals may or may not want to learn about their personal genomics and health predictions. One of his major points is that the medical actionability of prediction is an important consideration. For example, newborns are given PKU screenings because they are 1) hi

For this post, I will be assessing how the interview, Prediction, and Philosophy tie into my final project topic which explores the type of predictive metrics casinos use to stay profitable. Within the interview, there is a discussion about the predictable nature of human behaviors which is a key co

I watched Dan Gilbert’s interview on Prediction & Psychology, to help inform my final project which will be on the predictive systems of Online Dating. Gilbert raised some interesting psychological points that link to the data that is used in these matching algorithms used by dating sites. He mentio

This post was correlated with my project because it discusses genomes and people's genetics. My project has to do with a predictive system that predicts human height, which is highly due to genetics and heritability. So, it was interesting and helpful to learn about the Personal Genome project and h

The most surprising bit of information to me in this interview was the discussion about “Techno fanaticism”. This is about the idea of beating climate change through some big technological breakthrough, avoiding having to take any other steps to address it. They compare this to the invention of nitr

My final project is about the uncertainty related to galaxy collisions. In this interview, Jill Tarter talks about how scientists were at one point sure that the most likely method to discover communication from aliens would be through radio waves, but as our technology has advanced, we've found tha

In his interview with Prof. Goodman, Prof. Laibson touches on behavioral economics and rational choice theory. Rational choice theory -- the idea that each individual decides what is most optimal for themselves via a cost-benefit analysis performed with the assumption of perfectly rational thinking

I really enjoyed the part on the Sure-thing principle. I had never heard it described this way before -- I believe this is referred to as prospect theory whenever I have heard it. Essentially, this term means that humans are not rational thinkers. Thus, they weight losses more heavily than gains. So