I really enjoyed the part on the Sure-thing principle. I had never heard it described this way before -- I believe this is referred to as prospect theory whenever I have heard it. Essentially, this term means that humans are not rational thinkers. Thus, they weight losses more heavily than gains. So, in this example, our anchor point is 1 million, making our potential loss 1 million and our potential gain 899 million. I'd be curious to calculate the answer to see if we could mathematically see (depending on how loss averse our answerer is) whether or not someone would take the 90% chance at a billion dollars.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/prospect-theory/
