Link to Interview In Professor Firestein's interview, he talks about how it is necessary to constantly revise predictive systems. This sentiment is echoed by many fans of college football (CFB). Many believe that the College Football Playoff (CFP) Committee has inconsistently applied its criteria in the past. These are the four criteria that the Committee claims to evalutate teams on: 1. Win-Loss Record 2. Strength of Opponents 3. Head-to-Head Results 4. Conference Championships
However, we have seen the Committee stray from those rankings numerous times in the past, yet they refuse to issue any sort of statement on what their new criteria may be. Firestein's interview, while speaking on a different concept, is very applicable in this issue. Florida State University (FSU), for example, had a perfect regular season, and won their Conference Championship (The ACC Conference) in 2023-24, yet they failed to earn a playoff bid from the Committee. This has sparked an ongoing debate on the "Best Four" vs. "Most-Deserving Four" views of the CFP. Should the best four teams make the CFP, or should the most-deserving four teams make the playoff? The lack of a consistent, well-defined system to assign rankings has lead to the system holding massive amounts of uncertainty. Also, with just four teams (which will expand to twelve next year), how certain can the CFP Committee really be in its decisions? Many reforms have been proposed to ranking teams. Below in the table, you will find a table from ESPN outlining many of the different systems. Which should we rank from? Should it be the strength of record (SOR), football power index (FPI), subjective Associated Press or CFP rankings (AP/CFP)? The lack of a well-defined system — that is, a system that is not consistently revised in definition and practice — has lead to massive amounts of uncertainty.
For example, the Washington Huskies, a team that received a CFP bid in 2024 has a CFP ranking of 2, but they hold a FPI ranking of 12 — quite far from the top 4. Where does the Committee go from here, as we expand to a twelve-team playoff? Will we ever get the well-defined, revised system that Firestein neccesitates regarding science?
Credit to ESPN for the table of rankings. A glossary can be found at the bottom of the page with more information.
Here is a some additional information that you may find helpful on how the CFB rankings are determined, as well as the criteria that the Playoff Committee considers.