In the interview with Rebecca Henderson, she mentions a phenomenon known as “Feedback Effects”. Upon hearing it, I thought it would have something to do with climate modeling; that models are perhaps intentionally altered in response to negative feedback. However, feedback effects are actually more similar to the concept of “unknown unknowns” discussed in Nate Silver’s book. Henderson explains that feedback effects are unforeseen outcomes of an event, and while they could be perceived as possible, they are difficult to predict. She gives an example of greenhouse gases that are currently trapped under ice sheets. If these sheets melt due to climate change, they will release an explosion of additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This will in turn increase the rate of global heating, which will cause ice melting and rising sea levels to occur even faster than currently predicted. However, if we act before then, it is unlikely that the release of these gases will occur. Henderson describes these kinds of instances as “discontinuity”. While we can make predictions in a way that can be described as linear, our response to that prediction can go in a variety of non-linear directions, and feedback effects exist too far down these non-linear paths to foresee.