https://www.labxchange.org/library/pathway/lx-pathway:b5121779-9f49-49db-93d9-80d5d67dadb3/items/lx-pb:b5121779-9f49-49db-93d9-80d5d67dadb3:lx_simulation:f10b9110?source=%2Flibrary%2Fclusters%2Flx-cluster%3AModernPrediction&fullscreen=true

The fact that he doesn't think we will have a good deterministic model and that the ability to predict economic events 20 years in the future we won't see for a long time surprised me. This was surprising to me since I feel like we have come a long way in a lot of forms of predictions (including economic events), that we should be able to predict it at some point. Yes, it may be with a not good degree of accuracy, but can we not predict how the stock market will be in 20 years or interest rates? I do agree with Laibson that it may be hard to explain to people (especially if done with a machine learning model).