I surely agree, @vincentli -- these are the draft images we ultimately didn't include, but clearly should!

@Cici Williams thanks! After reading your comment and some others, I am encouraged to resubmit an updated version of this article somewhere to offer it to a wider public.

@William Foulkes i’m so glad you feel this way, as showing how simple math can help with understanding risk was exactly our goal in creating this essay. We are considering re-submitting it and updating it to another publication, so it’s good to know that it can accomplish its goal.

I have never thought about the role of goals in Prediction before, but that is a really good idea. Thanks for that!

I like your question about new topics, Emily. My own answer would be that the best questions lead to more new questions than they do answers--or at least that's been my experience as a scientist! (In essence, almost nothing is only fully "answered," only better understood.)

Thanks @Julie Alarifi -- I'm understanding you to be asking "how are false positives fed back in to a Predictive System to improve it?"--is that what you mean?

Good question, Jordan. I am betting Jill would be in favor of science fiction as inspiration for astrophysicists

There’s so much more to the story, Gavin. There has been recent discussion directly between Jill Tarter and Avi Loeb. Unfortunately it was not handled well online, but it does make for interesting viewing

Thanks Henry. I particularly recommend that you read The Knowledge Machine by Michael Strevens if you are interested in the difference between formal scholarly communication, that tends to be quite conservative, and back room scholarly discussion, which is much less so

This is great fodder for our discussions in class coming in c. 2 weeks, Grace. Please do bring these questions up when we talk about uncertainty then!

I'm working on inviting all the interviewees to this Forum, @Jaida Wilson , so maybe someday soon we'll have some answers to this good question!

"Yes" on all of this... "uncertainty" can exist on many spatial and temporal scales, for many reasons. It's true that quantum uncertainty exists on the tiniest spatial and shortest temporal scales, and that ultimately it could have something to do with brain function & a deep level of "unpredictability." My guess, though, is that larger spatial scales, and longer time scales, "chemical" and/or "biological" processes in our brains govern our behavior (and thus free will) "before" we ever get to the quantum effects. But, that's just my guess!

I’d say optimism and idealism drive progress in human society, no matter how “unrealistic” they may be. I don’t think Dan Gilbert would disagree...but let’s invite him to comment.

Blind belief in tech is definitely a “religion” for many, especially in Silicon Valley & its ilk. Not a religion I’d subscribe to though, even though I am sometimes accused of such!

Interesting to think about conversation success as predictive success. I think it’s really about empathy—putting yourself in the head of those you’re talking with, including what they’ll want to be talking about seconds in to the future.

Darn good question. @pkraft0 — do you have thoughts you’d like to share on that?

All true—and the real question is whether HUMANS have changed along with their predictive technologies. Answer may be no.

Thanks Luke, and I hope you’ll find a way to work your questions about communicating uncertainty into your final project!

Thanks Daniel—I believe there’s now plenty of AI in economics. It’s early days,so seeing how it most helps/hurts is “for the future.”

Awesome title, @Jaida Wilson . Thanks