Identify and explain (in a paragraph) the most surprising bit of information you learned: The overconfidence in predictions across many fields of study, including climate science, was very interesting. The idea that experts tend to be 50% more confident in their predictions than they should be underscores a fundamental human bias towards overestimating the accuracy of our models and forecasts. This bias affects not only climate scientists but also impacts predictions in economics, health, and even the physical sciences. Needing to adjust for confidence intervals is a crucial reminder of the importance of humility and caution in scientific predictions.
“Overconfidence.” Berkeley, news.berkeley.edu/2018/01/22/overconfidence. Accessed 23 Apr. 2024.
