The interview with Daniel Kammen was comprehensive and fascinating, but I would have asked follow up questions on his point about "silver bullet" solutions to climate change. Kammen says that even important breakthroughs in climate technology have little to no effect in the long run. This may make sense up to this point, but could future breakthroughs disrupt this trend? For example, could an historic leap in battery technology enable significant increases in energy efficiency? Or could a revolution in carbon capture technology allow us to go carbon-negative in the near future? Part of the problem is that we are limited in our prediction of future innovation by the framework of current technology. While human history has seen slow and steady progressions, many of the most important moments have been revolutionary breakthroughs. The digital age, which could not have been predicted even decades before it, has completely altered the fabric of society. Could such "black swan" innovations happen in climate science?
Interesting question Andrew; I'd agree that it is difficult to predict the impact of innovations before they even occur. For example, thinking about the development of the atomic bomb, scientists weren't sure exactly how powerful it would be, and the effect it would have on international military relations. As we discussed unknown unknowns in class, maybe the effect of these innovations could be considered unknown unknowns, and thus we would only have a general idea of what they could be.