The Psychology of Prediction with Dan Gilbert

An aspect of the video I found particularly interesting was the close intersection between looking into the past and gazing into the future. I appreciated Gilbert’s analysis regarding the idea that the future and past are “partially constrained by facts” and “lightly constrained by facts” but are otherwise very similar. Gilbert further asserts that the act of remembering is rooted in our imagining of past experiences through what we know at the time. It was fascinating listening to the debate about whether our current generation of students is less likely to embrace the idea of imagination over the more prominent desire for concrete structure. I believe that this population perseverates over a rubric, craving, as discussed, an incredibly accurate prediction of the future, rather than one rooted in uncertainty.

The concept of happiness surfaces several times throughout the talk, and you mention that if someone knew what the future had in store for them, it wouldn’t make them as happy as they imagined it would. As a whole, do you feel that happiness is something humans do a good job at predicting? If not, why?