Professor Goodman's interview of Dan Gilbert relates to my final project in a few ways. My project involves the creation of my own model to predict the outcome of NBA playoff games. Part of my process includes deciding which factors to give weight to in my model. Things like home court advantage and team motivation are two psychological factors which are incredibly hard to model because we are uncertain about how each individual thinks about these inputs. I enjoyed listening to Dan talk about how humans perceive the difference between a "sure thing" and a "probable thing." For example, most people would say 2% likelihood is closer to 10% likelihood than it is to 0%. It is interesting how the mind will categorize information. To relate it back to my project, it is hard to judge a player's confidence when they might perceive a 2% chance of winning as the same "maybe/maybe not" scenario as a 50/50 chance of winning, thus leaving their motivation to win unchanged.
More relevant information can be found in this sports psychology book.
Vealey, Robin S. "Confidence in sport." Sport Psychology 1 (2009): 43-52.