This is for Dan Kammen. I was most curious about how do we communicate that there are certain high-consequence but not necessarily low-probability events that we know will occur but we do not know when and we also do not know exactly what the 'exact' impact of such events will be — would a public awareness project focused on steps that could be taken now that would dramatically reduce the consequence of such events be the appropriate framing? Is such a project necessary given perhaps we do not want to make people panic but rather we want them to feel like there is grave danger ahead but it is preventable if we all just work together? As pointed out in the video, maybe the point of modern predictions is just to create legislative action in the necessary direction, and then after a few years, develop some more predictions highlighting the danger of these high-consequence events? After all, perhaps worrying about these events may be like worrying about studying calculus when we still have not mastered basic algebra: our government policies are decades behind on the most basic necessary action. Additionally, as a final question, I would ask is this something that due to the nature of these events we will never know the probability and impact of such events or that sanctioning future study in these directions will potentially enable far more clarity? Link.
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Your comment on government policy ("worrying about studying calculus when we still have not mastered basic algebra") made me laugh—but I wonder if it is truly the case. It seems that government policy is rarely entirely as it seems on the surface; what appears on the surface to be algebra is, in fact, calculus, and perhaps necessarily so - after all, I myself know very little about calculus...
It seems to me the core question is not one of awareness, but of incentive. From the top-down and the bottom-up, there is a lack of incentive to acknowledge fundamental realities about our ecology. We can't wait for fear of suffering to act as the fatal incentive - some part of me wonders if the key is taking environmental policy out of the realm of individual choice, through increased mandatory action. I wonder then what democratic reforms would need to take place for a higher level of top-down dynamicism in environmental policy; a fundamental shift away from finance dominance in American politics would be the crucial first step, linking this question back to your other findings from the Kammen interview.